气象科技进展2016，Vol.6Issue(4)：24-29,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2016.04.003
对未来两个太阳周太阳活动参数的统计预测
The Statistical Prediction of Sunspot Number for the Next Two Solar Cycles
摘要
Abstract
In this work, the 24th and 25th solar cycles’ periodic characteristics were predicted by using support vector machine (SVM) method and back propagation (BP) neural network method respectively, based upon the data of previous 23 solar cycles. The authors found that both of the methods reach the optimal value after applying the cross validation algorithm, it reveals that the intensity of solar activity in the 25th solar cycle will be enhanced comparing with the 24th solar cycle in both the SVM and the BP Neural Network prediction; that the sun spot number (SSN) will maintain low value in the valley phase; and the cycle length will be around 10 years in the 25th solar cycle. According to the periodic characteristics of the 24th solar cycle that was past, there sults from BP Neural Network method prediction are more close to actual situation than that from the SVM. The results indicate that solar activity will enter 25th solar cycle in 2020, and will reach the peak in 2025; the amplitude of peak year in the 25th solar cycle will be stronger than that in the 24th solar cycle.关键词
太阳黑子数/太阳周期/支持向量机/后向传播神经网络Key words
sun spot number/solar cycle/support vector machine/back propagation neural network引用本文复制引用
丁煌,廖云琛,肖子牛..对未来两个太阳周太阳活动参数的统计预测[J].气象科技进展,2016,6(4):24-29,6.基金项目
资助信息国家重大科学研究计划 （）
