摘要
Abstract
The mesoscale numerical model MM5, nested within the cloud microphysics scheme which is an improvement of weather modification made by Beijing University and Chinese Academy. Precipitation happened on April 1st and 2nd 2016 was simulated and tested, compared the forecast product with live data, it was found that MM5 model has certain prediction ability. The simulation results show that the model could forecast this precipitation process after analyzed the characteristics of cloud evolution, moving path, cloud vertical structure and so on, but there was always a certain mismatch between MM5 and observation in cloud properties, cloud coverage, precipitation range. On the whole, MM5 model was credible in weather forecast, because precipitation forecast and the actual situation were very consistent, precipitation area, precipitation grade and accuracy of prediction could reflect the actual situation well. Therefore the MM5 model for precipitation forecast in the area of Inner Mongolia is feasible, but precipitation simulation results obtained by MM5 model is large than that of observation results, which might be related to the treatment of initial field and boundary conditions, as well as the accuracy of the data used.关键词
MM5模式/降水预报/数值模拟/内蒙古地区Key words
MM5 model/precipitation forecast/numerical simulation/Inner Mongolia分类
天文与地球科学
