经济与管理研究2016，Vol.37Issue(10)：13-21,9.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2016.10.002
新常态下贸易调整与中国经济周期波动
Trade Adjustment and China's Business Cycle in the “New Normal”Era
摘要
Abstract
This paper constructs a multi-sector open economy DSGE model to analyze the dynamic transmission mechanism in the “New Normal”considering the dynamic variables of the share on import-vis-export ratio and the foreign-vis-domestic product substitution ratio simultaneously.The simulation results can be summarized at least three manifolds. Firstly,the results demonstrate that different trade adjustment strategies and paths would affect the economy built on different types of shocks.Secondly,during the trade adjustment period,domestic shocks would affect the stability of the economy,while foreign shocks would affect the domestic economy in a short-term run but show no effect in the long-term run.Thirdly,the share of import would mainly affect consumption,investment,capital and real exchange rate,while foreign-vis-domestic product substitution elasticity would affect capital,current account and real exchange rate significantly.关键词
贸易调整/多部门/随机动态一般均衡/新常态/经济周期Key words
trade adjustment/multi-sector/DSGE model/New Normal/business cycle分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
余颖丰..新常态下贸易调整与中国经济周期波动[J].经济与管理研究,2016,37(10):13-21,9.基金项目
国家社会科学基金青年项目“负面清单管理模式下服务业开放路径与政府策略选择研究”（15CJY062）；首都经济贸易大学金融风险研究院、特大城市研究院、金融学院科研经费支持项目 （）
