中国电机工程学报2016，Vol.36Issue(19)：5134-5144,11.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.160283
电力设备停运概率的非精确条件估计
Imprecise Estimation for Conditional Outage Probabilities of Power Components
摘要
Abstract
By using limited outage samples, it is difficult to obtain the operational reliability indexes of power components accurately. Therefore, estimating the fluctuation ranges of the indexes can provide a more objective decision-making basis for power system operational risk control. In this paper, a novel approach was proposed to estimate the imprecise conditional outage probabilities of power components based on the credal network (CN), which could evaluate the interval ranges of conditional probabilities. Based on the historical outage statistics and the component operational conditions at the target period, a credal network, which used the imprecise Dirichlet model (IDM) to get the imprecise probabilistic dependencies, was set up to estimate the imprecise conditional outage probabilities. Therefore, the imprecise outage probabilities of components can be obtained by using the reasoning algorithm of the credal network. The proposed approach can reflect the variation of the conditional outage probabilities with respected to the operational conditions of the power components, and breaks a new way for the reliability assessment of power components with limited outage observations. Results on estimating the imprecise conditional outage probabilities of LGJ-300 transmission lines located in Shandong province illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.关键词
电力系统/暴露型设备/停运概率/条件概率/非精确概率/信度网络/非精确狄利克雷模型Key words
power system/exposure component/outage probability/conditional probability/imprecise probability/credal network/imprecise Dirichlet model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
刁浩然,杨明,韩学山,马世英,刘道伟,王剑辉..电力设备停运概率的非精确条件估计[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(19):5134-5144,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(51007047,51477091)；国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB228205)；国家电网公司科技项目(XT71-15-056)。 Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(51007047,51477091) （51007047,51477091）
The National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)(2013CB228205) （973 Program）
Project Supported by State Grid Corporation of China(XT71-15-056) （XT71-15-056）
