农业科学研究2016，Vol.37Issue(3)：18-21,4.
模糊权马尔可夫链在原州区降雨量预测中的应用
Prediction of precipitation based on the Fuzzy Weighted Markov Chain in Yuanzhou Area Ningxia
摘要
Abstract
Based on the annual precipitation data from 1971 to 1997 in Yuanzhou Area,taking the means and standard deviation of information series as the classification standard of precipitation,the past 27 years are classified into five states:drought year,weak drought year,normal year,weak water logging year and water logging year. After the verification of the Markov property of precipitation,with the level characteristics value of fuzzy sets,the Fuzzy weighted Markov chain model used for predicting the state of precipitation in Yuanzhou Area was established by taking standardized auto-correlation coefficient as weight coefficient,and the prediction results are satisfactory. Taking the gray system theory to predict extreme rainfall year to make up the fuzzy weighted Markov chain model for forecasting extreme disadvantage allowed. The results show that:the precipitation results are satisfactory.关键词
预测/降雨量/原州区,模糊权马尔可夫链/灰色系统理论Key words
prediction/precipitation/Yuanzhou Area/the Fuzzy Weighted Markov Chain/the gray system theory分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李淑娟..模糊权马尔可夫链在原州区降雨量预测中的应用[J].农业科学研究,2016,37(3):18-21,4.基金项目
水利部公益性行业科研专项(200901074) （200901074）
