山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）2016，Vol.47Issue(5)：789-795,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-2324.2016.05.030
山东省能源消费与经济增长的协整关系及能源需求预测
The Co-integration between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth and the Forecast for Energy Demand in Shandong Province
摘要
Abstract
To study on the relationships of energy consumption and economic growth in Shandong Province, this paper collected the statistics data from 1985 to 2013 in Shandong Province, and took the co-integration test and error correction model analysis between them on the basis of stability test, which showed there was stable two-way Granger causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Shandong Province with strong interdependence to each other. What’s more, generalized differential regression prediction model was constructed to test the model accuracy. Based on these analysis, this paper made the prediction for the energy consumption in Shandong Province to forecast energy consumption constraints we were confronted with in the near future.关键词
能源消费/经济增长/协整关系/需求预测Key words
Energy consumption/economic growth/co-integration/demand forecast分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
吴士健,宋立群,刘新民..山东省能源消费与经济增长的协整关系及能源需求预测[J].山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）,2016,47(5):789-795,7.基金项目
山东省优秀中青年科学家科研奖励基金(BS2013SF019) （BS2013SF019）
第55批中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(2014M551937) （2014M551937）
国家统计局统计科研重点项目(2010LB27,2010LB21) （2010LB27,2010LB21）
中国煤炭工业协会科学技术研究指导性计划项目(MTKJ2014-218) （MTKJ2014-218）
山东科技大学科研创新团队支持计划(2015TDJH103) （2015TDJH103）
