沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）2016，Vol.9Issue(5)：403-408,6.DOI:10.7688/j.issn.1674-0823.2016.05.04
国际贸易均衡波动概率统计模型及实证研究∗--基于主要国家1981-2013年进出口数据
Empirical research and probability statistical model on equilibrium fluctuations of international trade：based on data of major import and export countries from 1981 to 2013
摘要
Abstract
The exports and imports of a country are treated as random variables. According to central limit theorem, if several sums of the value of exports and imports are obtained, then they will be subject to normal distribution, and then it is inferred that the ratio of the sample variances is subject to F distribution and rejection and acceptation regions can be decided. The data from 1981 to 2013 of major import and export countries are selected to test the model. The conclusions are that the fluctuations of export equilibrium are less than that of the import equilibrium, and the ratio of sample variances between the goods and the service has nothing to do with the degree if a country is developed or not. In addition, the sample variance of every country is in “the nature of border”, namely, the ratio of sample variance of the total of import and export is between the ratio of sample variance of goods trade and the ratio of sample variance of services trade.关键词
国际贸易/均衡波动/概率统计模型/进口/出口Key words
international trade/equilibrium fluctuation/probability statistical model/import/export分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
许晓军,袁辉,袁璐..国际贸易均衡波动概率统计模型及实证研究∗--基于主要国家1981-2013年进出口数据[J].沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）,2016,9(5):403-408,6.基金项目
辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点项目(L15AJL008) （L15AJL008）
辽宁省教育厅人文社会科学项目(W2013024,W2010313) （W2013024,W2010313）
辽宁省高校党建理论研究课题(GXDJ2014-B076)。 （GXDJ2014-B076）
