灾害学2016，Vol.31Issue(4)：49-53,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2016.04.009
巨灾对全球贸易的影响评估
Assessment on the Impact of Large-scale Disasters on Global Trade
摘要
Abstract
With the development of economic globalization,the impacts of large-scale disasters on global trade are attracting more attentions;this paper proposes a gravity model and estimates the parameters’elasticities,using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood method with the data of countries and regions all over the world.The data con-sist of GDP,distance,population,land area,common border,common language and large-scale disasters from 1980 to 2012.Study results show that:the impacts of large-scale disasters on global trade are significant,and an addition of the importer’s large-scale disasters increases the import;an addition of the exporter’s large-scale disas-ters decreases the export.From the point of global average condition,the negative impacts of large-scale disasters on export are greater than the positive impacts on import.关键词
巨灾/全球贸易/影响评估/引力模型/进口/出口Key words
Large-scale disasters/global trade/impact assessment/gravity model/import/export分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
孟永昌,杨赛霓,史培军,王铸..巨灾对全球贸易的影响评估[J].灾害学,2016,31(4):49-53,5.基金项目
国家外国专家局和教育部“111计划”“北京师范大学综合灾害风险管理创新引智基地” （）
