灾害学2016，Vol.31Issue(4)：110-115,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2016.04.019
云南省地质灾害精细化气象风险预警模型优化研究
Improvement on the Meteorological Forewarning Index of Geologic Hazard in Yunnan Province
摘要
Abstract
In order to improve the running forewarning model used for meteorological risk warning of geologic hazard in Yunnan Province,the precipitation data from regional automatic weather stations in Nujiang were used to calculate critical indices,and the risk division of geologic hazard was updated by the disaster geographic informa-tion.According to the research,continuous precipitation was the main type of the rainfall-triggered geologic haz-ard,and the excitation of heavy rain in short term was very important.The geologic hazard had obviously regional distribution characteristics in Nujiang.It was found that the improved forewarning model had a better effect of appli-cation in 2015 events,and the rate of vacancy forecast for high risk warning was decreased significant.Based on the research the spatial resolution of the meteorological risk forewarning will be refined and enhanced.关键词
地质灾害/预警指标/模型优化/对比检验Key words
geologic hazard/forewarning index/model optimization/comparative test分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
胡娟,闵颖,李华宏,许迎杰,李超,李湘..云南省地质灾害精细化气象风险预警模型优化研究[J].灾害学,2016,31(4):110-115,6.基金项目
云南省科技惠民计划项目“云南怒江流域精细化地质灾害气象预警系统研究及示范”（2013CA014）；中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用面上项目“云南省山洪地质灾害精细化气象预报预警业务系统研究”（CMAGJ2014M44）；云南省气象局预报员技术开发专项项目“云南省滑坡泥石流灾害预报预警模型精细化研究” （）
