灾害学2016，Vol.31Issue(4)：196-199,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2016.04.035
BFAST--一种分析气候极端事件变化的新方法
BFAST---A New Method to Analyze Change of Climate Extremes
摘要
Abstract
To analyze the influence of climate change on the frequency of extreme events in Beijing,firstly, Mann-Kendall method is used to deal with annual average temperature data in 1952-2010 of Beijing station.Since abrupt change of the annual average temperature of Beijing was not successfully detected,BFAST is introduced to deal with the monthly average temperature time series,this is because monthly average data is more sophisticated compared with annual average data,diasaster or extreme events can be better reflected on monthly data.The article further explores the changes of the frequency of extreme high temperature events in Beijing after gaining the trend and abrupt change of monthly average data.The results show that the climate change trend and abrupt change which BFAST detected is consistent with the change of the frequency of extreme high temperature events.BFAST is a powerful tool to determine climate change and to analyze climate extremes.关键词
M-K突变检验/BFAST方法/气候变化/极端高温事件Key words
M-K test/BFAST/climate change/extreme high temperature events分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
王烨,李宁,张正涛,张洁..BFAST--一种分析气候极端事件变化的新方法[J].灾害学,2016,31(4):196-199,4.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目”基于多维联合分布理论的灾害风险评估模型研究”（41171401）；中央高校基本科研业务专项资金项目；地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室项目 （）
