摘要
Abstract
The South Yellow Sea region is one of the most active areas with medium⁃and⁃strong earthquakes in the eastern part of China.According to the statistical analysis,the activity of M≥6 earthquakes in this region has shown an obvious commensurability and orderliness since 1846.The main orderly values are 74⁃75 a,57⁃58 a,11⁃12 a,and 5⁃6 a,of which 74⁃75 a and 57⁃58 a play an outstanding role in strong earthquake prediction.Under the guidance of the information forecasting theory proposed by Weng Wenbo,we construct and further optimize the 2D⁃and 3D⁃or⁃dered network of M≥6 earthquakes.The structure and its prediction function for strong earthquakes are discussed in detail after reviewing and summing up the successful prediction for the M6�1 earthquake in the South Yellow Sea on November 9,1996.In the meanwhile,the trend prediction of M≥6 earthquakes in the future and demonstration anal⁃ysis are studied on the basis of the ordered network structure and commensurable analysis.The results show that the first M≥6 earthquake in the next active episode will probably occur around 2053-2054;furthermore,the second one or strong earthquake swarm in the future will probably occur around 2058-2059.关键词
南黄海/可公度性/信息有序网络结构/时间间隔聚点分析/M≥6强震预测Key words
South Yellow Sea region/commensurability/informational ordered network structure/analysis on the accumulation point of time interval/prediction of M≥6 earthquake分类
天文与地球科学
