气象科技进展2016，Vol.6Issue(5)：36-40,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2016.05.005
基于MaxEnt的华山松大小蠹在中国潜在分布区预测
Potential Geographical Distribution ofDendroctonus armandi in China Based on the MaxEnt Prediction
摘要
Abstract
Dendroctonus armandi is a destructive insect of Pinus armandi, it caused serious economic losses annually to the forest industry in China. Determination of the potential geographical distribution ofDendroctonus armandi is an important factor for effectively controlling the spread of this pest. In this study, the niche model MaxEnt and Diva-gis were employed to analyze and predict the suitable distribution area ofDendroctonus armandi, the ROC was used to evaluate the prediction model and the prediction results, and the Jackknife analysis was adopted to analyze the most important environmental factors that affect the occurrence ofDendroctonus armandi. The results show thatDendroctonus armandi had a concentrated distribution regions: the south of the Shaanxi Province, the northeast of the Sichuan Province and the southeastern Gansu Province. Four dominant climatic factors controllingDendroctonus armandi distribution were determined, including the mean temperature in the driest quarter, the precipitation in the warmest quarter, the precipitation seasonality, the temperature seasonality and the precipitation in the coldest quarter. Here, we analyze the relationship between dominant climatic factors and the probability of the pest presences, and suggest a thinking way for the further research.关键词
华山松大小蠹/MaxEnt/适生性分析/影响因子Key words
Dendroctonus armandi/MaxEnt/suitability analysis/environmental factors引用本文复制引用
王茹琳,余华彬,王闫利,姜淦,林姗,沈沾红..基于MaxEnt的华山松大小蠹在中国潜在分布区预测[J].气象科技进展,2016,6(5):36-40,5.基金项目
中国气象局“2012年业务专项经费”；四川省气象局科学技术研究开发课题 （）
