广东电力2016，Vol.29Issue(10)：1-6,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-290X.2016.10.001
一种基于时变概率权的短期风功率组合预测模型
A Combination Forecasting Model for Short-term Wind Power Combination Based on Time Varying Probability Weight
摘要
Abstract
High-precision short-term wind power forecasting is useful to realize optimizing dispatching of the power system with a large number of wind turbines. In allusion to the problem of unstable forecasting of some single models such as auto-regressive and moving average (ARMA),back propagation (BP)neutral network,least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM)and so on,as well as shortages of fixed weight of covariance and the probability weight combined model,this paper presents a kind of combined forecasting model based on time varying probability by combining with daily variation character-istic of wind power. Practical examples indicate that the combined model can effectively improve precision of forecasting while the time varying probability weight combined model can dynamically adjust weight of each single model and further improve forecasting precision.关键词
短期风功率预测/单一模型/组合模型/时变概率权Key words
short-term wind power forecasting/single model/combined model/time varying probability weight分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
杨苹,叶超..一种基于时变概率权的短期风功率组合预测模型[J].广东电力,2016,29(10):1-6,6.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAA06B02) （2015BAA06B02）
广东省科技计划项目(2012B040303005) （2012B040303005）
南沙区科技计划项目资助(2013P005) （2013P005）
