气象2016，Vol.42Issue(10)：1161-1175,15.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.10.001
GRAPES区域集合预报系统模式不确定性的随机扰动技术研究
Stochastic Parameterization Toward Model Uncertainty for the GRAPES Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System
摘要
Abstract
In order to describe the model uncertainly of the GRAPES MEPS (Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System,Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System),we used Stochastically Perturbed Param-eterization Tendencies (SPPT)scheme in this system.The random field which is described with first order Markov chain has a time-related characteristics and Gaussian distribution,and also has a continuous and smooth horizontal structure since it is a combination through the spectral transform.This paper presents experiments on GRAPES MEPS ensemble forecasts based on SPPT scheme,with a series of sensitivity tests on random perturbation amplitude and timescale correlation coefficient carried out.Verification on ensemble forecasts is also implemented,and the impact of SPPT scheme on precipitation prediction is ana-lyzed.The experimental results indicate that SPPT scheme can improve forecasting skills of GRAPES MEPS system and reduce the false negative rate to a certain extent,and improve the prediction of heavy rain fore-cast skill significantly.Through the sensitivity tests we found that the effect of SPPT scheme for GRAPES MEPS system is related to the amplitude of the random perturbation field and time correlation scale,more suitable parameters should be determined through sensitivity experiments.关键词
集合预报/随机扰动参数化倾向方案/扰动范围/时间尺度Key words
ensemble forecast/stochastically perturbed parameterization tendency (SPPT)/random field/time scale分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
袁月,李晓莉,陈静,夏宇..GRAPES区域集合预报系统模式不确定性的随机扰动技术研究[J].气象,2016,42(10):1161-1175,15.基金项目
公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201506005和GYHY201006015）、国家自然科学基金项目（41075035）、国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）（2012CB417204）和国家科技支撑计划项目（2015BAC03B01）共同资助 （）
