气象2016，Vol.42Issue(10)：1245-1255,11.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.10.009
面向流域的定量降水估测产品检验订正
Verification and Correction of Quantitative Precipitation Estimation for River Basins
摘要
Abstract
With the development of fusion technology of multi-resource precipitation data,quantitative pre-cipitation estimation (QPE)that combines satellite,radar and conventional meteorological data has got more mature.It has effectively made up the deficienties of low spatial and temporal resolution of conven-tional meteorological data and offered good opportunities for the application and development of the water-shed area precipitation products.At the same time,the testing and the correction of suitability of QPE are the premise and basis for the application of watershed area precipitation.In the paper,based on hydrologi-cal precipitation data,statistic-testing methods such as the threat score (TS),accuracy rate,false-posi-tives rate,false-negatives rate,absolute bias,relative bias,root mean square error and the ROC curve are employed to evaluate the suitability of the QPE of National Meteorological Centre.The error spatial and temporal distribution,the series error in river basin and the quality of different scale precipitation are analyzed.Then,the decreasing average method is applied to optimize and correct the QPE which is based on the error statistics.The watershed area precipitation products are calculated based on the optimized QPE.Lastly,in the case of hydrological element forecast in Linyi Basin,the QPE area precipitation prod-ucts are found good for the improvement of hydrological forecast.The studies indicate that developing QPE area precipitation products based on fusion technology of multi-resource precipitation data can make up the deficiencies of refinement in state-level forecasting operation of area precipitation and,enhance the technological capacity of state-level hydrological meteorology.关键词
定量降水估测/流域面雨量/检验Key words
QPE (quantitative precipitation estimation)/watershed area precipitation/test分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
许凤雯,王志,狄靖月,包红军,赵琳娜..面向流域的定量降水估测产品检验订正[J].气象,2016,42(10):1245-1255,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（51509043）、国家科技重大专项（2013ZX07304-001-1）、中国气象局首批青年英才计划“中小河流洪水气象预警关键技术研究”（2014-2017）、国家气象中心预报员专项课题（Y201605），以及国家气象中心水文气象预报团队共同资助 （）
