应用生态学报2016，Vol.27Issue(10)：3221-3227,7.DOI:10.13287/j.1001-9332.201610.020
基于贝叶斯方法的湖南湘潭稻米Cd超标风险评估
Risk assessment of cadmium in rice in Xiangtan, Hunan, China based on Bayesian method
摘要
Abstract
In this study,a total of 73 groups of paddy soil and rice samples were collected from 3 counties of Xiangtan City,Hunan Province,which were Xiangtan,Yuhu,and Xiangxiang,respectively.The total content of Cd in soil and rice samples was determined,the available Cd in soil samples also was measured,and the correlation analysis was conducted among them,respectively.According to the prior probability and data feature,we proposed to use the Bayesian method to evaluate the risk of Cd content exceeding criterion in rice and construct the risk assessment model.The results indicated that,the average soil Cd content,soil available Cd content and the rice Cd content in the study area were (0.891±0.638) mg· kg-1,(0.791±0.582) mg · kg-1 and (0.376±0.395) mg · kg-1,respectively,and the exceeding standard rate of Cd content in soil and rice reached 89.0％ and 52.1％.The rice Cd content was significantly correlated with the available Cd content and total Cd content in soil in Xiangtan and Yuhu.A better correlation was presented between the soil available Cd content and rice Cd content.The rice Cd content in Xiangxiang had no correlation with total Cd content and available Cd content in soil.When the total Cd content and available Cd content were selected as the variables of Bayesian model,the deviations between the predicted exceeding probability of Cd in rice and the true exceeding standard rate were 6.6％ and 3.9％,respectively,which proved the Bayesian risk assessment model was reliable.Selecting the available Cd content as the model variable,the predicted result was closer to the true value.关键词
Cd/稻田土壤/稻米/风险评估Key words
Cd/paddy soil/rice/risk assessment引用本文复制引用
徐晶晶,吴波,张玲妍,郭书海,李刚,李凤梅..基于贝叶斯方法的湖南湘潭稻米Cd超标风险评估[J].应用生态学报,2016,27(10):3221-3227,7.基金项目
本文由中国科学院科技服务网络计划项目(KFJ-EW-STS-013)资助 This work was supported by the Science and Technology Service Network Plan of Chinese Academy of Sciences (KFJ-EW-STS-013). （KFJ-EW-STS-013）
