电测与仪表2016，Vol.53Issue(19)：22-26,5.
两种基于自适应神经模糊推理系统的风功率预测方法
Two kinds of wind power prediction methods based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system
摘要
Abstract
With the continuous growth of wind power penetration , the study and application of wind power prediction which could improve security , stability and receptiveness of the power grids is of great importance .This paper analy-zes two kinds of prediction methods:one is based on wind speed prediction;the other is based on wind power predic-tion.Then, the ANFIS ( adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system ) prediction model is established .Taking the real data from a wind farm in the west of Jilin province to do the real-time multi-step rolling wind power prediction under two kinds of methods based on ANFIS , and the results of it are compared with the results of the linear regression method , the moving average method and the persistence method .It is shown that the prediction accuracy of the ANFIS method is higher and the effectiveness of ANFIS method can be proved .Furthermore , it also illustrates that the prediction ac-curacy of ANFIS method based on wind power prediction is better than ANFIS method based on wind speed predic -tion.关键词
风电功率/自适应神经模糊推理系统/风速/风速-功率传变特性Key words
wind power/adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system/wind speed/wind speed-power transformation分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
杨茂,董骏城,刘铁,钟宏鸣..两种基于自适应神经模糊推理系统的风功率预测方法[J].电测与仪表,2016,53(19):22-26,5.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目（973计划）（2013CB228201）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（51307017）；吉林省产业技术研究与开发项目（2014Y124）。 （）
