计算机应用与软件2016，Vol.33Issue(11)：288-296,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-386x.2016.11.066
基于贝叶斯网络d-分隔定理的节点置信度计算方法
NODE CONFIDENCE CALCULATION METHOD BASED ON D-SEPARATION THEOREM OF BAYESIAN NETWORK
摘要
Abstract
Current node confidence calculation method for Bayesian network has the problem of node confidence miscalculation caused by the miscalculation of conditional probability and the correlation of nodes.This problem reduces the accuracy of node confidence and impacts the effectiveness of prediction on propagation paths of network threats.Therefore,we present a node confidence calculation method which is based on d-separation theorem of Bayesian network.First,by analysing the correlation between attack cost and the occurrence likelihood of attack activity,we propose an approach for calculating the conditional probability of attack activity occurrence so as to solve the problem of miscalculation in conditional probability.Secondly,by introducing separation theorem of Bayesian network,we make the nodes with correlation be independent to each other under the condition of their common d-separation set,and propose the node confidence calculation method so as to effectively avoid the miscalculation of node confidence caused by the correlation.Finally,experimental results show that our method effectively solves the miscalculation problem of node confidence and improves the accuracy of node confidence,consequently it achieves the effective prediction on propagation paths of network threats.关键词
节点置信度/条件概率/相关性/d-分隔/攻击成本Key words
Node confidence/Conditional probability/Correlation/d-Separation/Attack cost分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
王辉,亢凯航,王云峰..基于贝叶斯网络d-分隔定理的节点置信度计算方法[J].计算机应用与软件,2016,33(11):288-296,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（51174263，61300216）；教育部博士点基金项目（20124116120004）；河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目（13A510325）。 （）
