人民黄河2016，Vol.38Issue(11)：13-15,22,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2016.11.004
基于厄尔尼诺现象研究的丰满水库径流预测
Runoff Forecast About the Fengman Reservoir Catchment Based on EI Nino Research
摘要
Abstract
Reservoir inflow forecast is important basis of reservoir scheduling and optimization allocation of water resources. The statistical law between EI Nino, La Nina events and Fengman Reservoir inflow and flood water under the changes in cold-warm phase of PDO was studied by this paper based on the event year table of EI Nino and La Nina and combining with the real water inflow of Fengman Reservoir watershed. The results show that when El Nino years happen, Fengman Reservoir is commonly low water at Lamar Dre cold phase period, El Nino years Fengman Reservoir is commonly plump water at Lamar Dre warm phase period, full water and flood often happens at Lamar Dre cold phase period. With the analysis of relative abundance of sunspots in the period of 1700-2014, it demonstrates the abnormal law of inflow water of El Nino year Fengman Reservoir at Lamar Dre cold phase period is related to relative abundance of sunspots periodic disturbance on the change trend before and after 1957. Based on the statistical law, the forecasting of Fengman Reservoir inflow water is low in 2015.关键词
厄尔尼诺/太平洋十年涛动/太阳黑子相对数/来水规律/丰满水库Key words
Pacific Decadal Oscillation/sunspot relative number/El Nino/water law/Fengman Reservoir分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李文龙,彭卓越,张丽丽,殷峻暹..基于厄尔尼诺现象研究的丰满水库径流预测[J].人民黄河,2016,38(11):13-15,22,4.基金项目
国家“973”计划项目（2013CB036406）。 （）
