人民黄河2016，Vol.38Issue(11)：128-132,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2016.11.031
基于博弈论的大坝POT预警模型及其应用
POT Early-Warning Model of Dam Based on Game Theory and its Application
摘要
Abstract
A model based on Game Theory and POT model has been established to determine warming index of concrete dam. The Game The⁃ory was applied to determine the comprehensive index weight and then the deformation entropy of multi measured point was established based on entropy theory. The POT model in Extreme Value Theory was introduced to implement the early⁃warning index estimation, according to the threshold, the analysis samples were obtained from the deformation entropy data exceeding the threshold, which satisfied the generalized Pa⁃reto Distribution. The generalized Pareto Distribution function of the data exceeding the threshold was determined. The early⁃warning index could be calculated by the combination of above distribution function and the dam failure probability. Finally, a certain concrete dam in Ya⁃long River was used as the modeling object and the result indicates that the obtained early⁃warning index can describe objectively the actual status of dam engineering.关键词
POT模型/博弈论/信息熵理论/预警/混凝土坝Key words
Peaks Over Threshold/Game Theory/Entropy Theory/early-warning/concrete dam分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
谢珊珊,周衡..基于博弈论的大坝POT预警模型及其应用[J].人民黄河,2016,38(11):128-132,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目（41302260）。 （）
