中国临床医学2016，Vol.23Issue(5)：640-643,4.DOI:10.12025/j.issn.1008-6358.2016.20160697
基于时间序列模型预测上海某三甲综合医院血制品使用量
Prediction of the use of hospital blood products based on time series model
乔郑磊 1顾晨晨 1曹敏凤 1朱巍 1戎瑞明2
作者信息
- 1. 复旦大学附属中山医院输血科，上海200032
- 2. 复旦大学附属中山医院泌尿外科，上海200032
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To systematically analyze the clinical use of various blood components,and find out the rules of forecasting demand scientifically,to provide a scientific basis for forecasting reasonable blood inventory volume.Methods:The clinical use of red blood cells and plasma and the number of people who received transfusion in a general hospital in Shanghai from January 2013 to January 2016 were analyzed with IBM SPSS Statistics 23.0 software,and a time series model was established with the Expert Modeler.Results:All of the residuals were white noise sequence.The model extracted all the data in the original sequence,and passed the model diagnosis.Compared with the actual value,the average relative error was basically within 8%,and predictive values were within the 95% confidence interval,so the predicting precision of the model was fine,and the prediction results were good.Conclusions:The establishment of a more suitable time series model for clinical use of blood can overcome the weaknesses of empirical use of blood,develop a more scientific blood inventory plan and receive good effects.关键词
临床用血/温特斯模型/血制品库存/专家建模器Key words
clinical use of blood/Winters model/blood products inventory/expert modeler分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
乔郑磊,顾晨晨,曹敏凤,朱巍,戎瑞明..基于时间序列模型预测上海某三甲综合医院血制品使用量[J].中国临床医学,2016,23(5):640-643,4.
