北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）2016，Vol.52Issue(5)：603-609,7.DOI:10.16360/j.cnki.jbnuns.2016.05.012
降水极值的非平稳性特征及其重现期研究--以福建省为例∗
Non-stationary characteristics of precipitation extreme and its impact on disaster risk in Fuj ian
摘要
Abstract
Precipitation series normally have non-stationary characteristics under changing environment. To explore in-depth non-stationary characteristics of precipitation extremes and its influence on risk of extreme precipitation,temporal-spatial characteristics of the mean and variance of precipitation extremes series were analyzed by empirical mode decomposition (EMD)and Mann-Kendall test.These non-stationary characteristics were derived from 22 meteorological stations in Fujian Province in pre-and post-flood period from 1960 2012. Contribution analysis was also done to investigate contribution of mean and variance trends to precipitation extreme increments.Temporal characteristic of extreme precipitation risk was explored based on trends of mean and variance in non-stationary model. Precipitation extreme series were found to show significant non-stationary characteristics in both pre-and post-flood season.In the first flood season,variance had a remarkable increase in the west,north and central of Fujian while the trend of variance showed a bigger contribution to trend of precipitation extremes series.In the second flood season,the mean of precipitation extremes series increased widely in Fuj ian,playing a leading role in the increasing trend of precipitation extreme.As a whole, precipitation extreme had a more general and obvious increasing trend.The risk of extreme precipitation in the first flood season was enhanced in northern Fujian,because variance of precipitation extreme series had a liner increasing trend leading to increased extreme precipitation.The risk of extreme precipitation in the second flood season increased in west and south Fuj ian.The increasing trend in mean has led to the increasing trend in extreme precipitation in most stations.But the trend was gentle.Change in variance affected risk of extreme precipitation significantly.It is necessary to take non-stationary characteristics of precipitation series into account in the study of extreme precipitation trend and the risk of extreme precipitation under changing environment.关键词
降水极值/非平稳性/重现期/福建省Key words
precipitation extreme/non-stationary/disaster risk/Fuj ian Province分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
黄婕,高路,陈兴伟,王静爱..降水极值的非平稳性特征及其重现期研究--以福建省为例∗[J].北京师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2016,52(5):603-609,7.基金项目
福建省科技厅省属公益类科研专项基金资助项目(2014R1034-6) （2014R1034-6）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41301031,41501106) （41301031,41501106）
教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金资助项目(2014-1685) （2014-1685）
福建省教育厅 A类资助项目(JA14083) （JA14083）
福建省自然科学基金青年创新基金资助项目(2015J05080) （2015J05080）
