湖南大学学报（自然科学版）2016，Vol.43Issue(10)：62-69,8.
中长期电量预测的傅里叶马尔科夫修正模型∗
Mid-long Term Load Forecasting Model with Fourier Series and Markov Theory Residual Error Correction
摘要
Abstract
Gray model is widely used in mid-long term electricity demand forecasting,but the model fits exponentially increasing data more precisely.Due to China's economic growth rate fluctuations,the in-crease in electricity consumption is slowing down,and electricity varies stochastically.So it is necessary to propose a new model to reflect the new situation.To solve the problem of the poor anti-interference ability of grey model,this paper proposes a model with Fourier series and Markov theory residual error correction based on grey model.This model applies Fourier series method to optimize electricity changing rate,and Markov chain method to embed the random property in gray forecasting model for doubly correcting the re-sidual error,which can improve the adaptability and flexibility.The proposed model is verified by actual load data,and it indeed improves the forecasting accuracy.关键词
电量预测/灰色模型/残差修正/傅里叶级数/马尔科夫链Key words
load forecasting/grey model/residual error correction/Froier series/Markov chain theory分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
李欣然,陈鸿琳,冷华,陈国民..中长期电量预测的傅里叶马尔科夫修正模型∗[J].湖南大学学报（自然科学版）,2016,43(10):62-69,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51277056),National Natural Science Foundation of China(51277056) （51277056）
