海洋预报2016，Vol.33Issue(5)：1-8,8.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2016.05.001
未来中国近海海冰变化特征的预估研究
Future projection of the sea ice in the Bohai Sea and the North Yellow Sea
摘要
Abstract
The future projection of sea ice in the Bohai Sea and the North Yellow Sea is studied. The increment of air temperature at two meters during 2015—2045 in CMIP5 data set, with respect to the historical case (1978—2008), was diagnosed, and superimposed on the historical climatology to force the sea ice-ocean coupled model to yield the projection of future sea ice. The results show that under different Representation Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the future sea ice in the four bays all decrease. However, the future sea ice will not decrease monotonously as the emission of greenhouse gas increases, i.e., RCP4.5 corresponds to the strongest decrease, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 weaker, and RCP2.6 the weakest. For the mean over four RCPs, the ice areas in the four bays (Liaodong, Bohai, Laizhou and North Yellow Sea) decrease by 438, 121, 23 and 84 km2, respectively;the ice extents decrease by 9, 7, 2 and 7 nmi(sea mile,1 nmi=1.852 km), respectively. For the Bohai Sea and North Yellow Sea, the future sea ice will decrease by 24%(ice area), 19%(ice extent) and 10%(lasting days).关键词
耦合模式比较计划第五阶段/渤海和黄海北部/未来海冰预估/2m气温Key words
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)/Bohai Sea and North Yellow Sea/future projection of seaice/air temperature at 2 meters分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
祖子清,凌铁军,张蕴斐,刘煜,唐茂宁..未来中国近海海冰变化特征的预估研究[J].海洋预报,2016,33(5):1-8,8.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划 （）
