南水北调与水利科技2016，Vol.14Issue(6)：1-5,5.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.06.001
干旱事件重现期计算问题研究
Return period calculation of drought events
摘要
Abstract
The concept of return period is commonly used to evaluate the severity of drought events .The calculation of the return period for a given drought contains drought recognition and selection of distribution function and so on ,which relies on the de‐termination of drought threshold .This paper proposed to use the maximum survey period of historical drought as a reference to determine the drought threshold ,in other words ,the resulting return period based on frequency analysis should not exceed the maximum survey period of historical drought .Besides ,considering that the drought duration samples tend to concentrate on sev‐eral values and lead to the platform‐concentrated phenomenon of empirical points ,the distribution function of run length was suggested to fit the drought duration samples .The monthly precipitation series of Minhe County in Qinghai province covering the period from 1932 to 2010 was used to demonstrate the proposed method ,where the Copula function was employed to build a bivariate joint distribution of drought duration and drought severity to compute the return period of drought event .关键词
干旱重现期/干旱阈值/干旱历时/干旱烈度/Copula函数Key words
return period of drought/drought threshold level/drought duration/drought intensity/copula function分类
地球科学引用本文复制引用
梁忠民,卜慧,刘和昌,胡义明,郦于杰..干旱事件重现期计算问题研究[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(6):1-5,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重大项目（51190095）；国家重点研发计划“水资源高效开发利用”重点专题（2016YFC0402707） FundMajor Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China（51190095）；The National Key Research and Development Program of China （）
