南水北调与水利科技2016，Vol.14Issue(6)：18-26,9.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.06.004
黑龙港地区的农业干旱风险评估
Risk assessment of agricultural drought in Heilonggang District
摘要
Abstract
Drought is the most severe agricultural meteorological disaster in Heilonggang District ,assessment of drought risk during dif‐ferent growing stages of winter wheat may provide basis to determine rational irrigation schedule and to prevent and control drought . Based on the simulated soil water dynamics of 31 profiles for 1961 -2005 using the calibrated APSIM model ,relative soil moisture drought indexes were calculated for different growth stages of winter wheat ,and the spatial and temporal characteristics of agricultural drought of two scenarios ,Farm Scenario(FS) and Optimized Scenario (OS) were analyzed .The results showed that ,from the point of view of different growth stages of winter wheat ,high‐frequency drought occurred in sowing‐overwintering stage and turning green‐joint‐ing stage for FS ,with frequencies of 48.89% and 27.6% respectively ,and in overwintering‐turning green stage ,turning green‐jointing stage and grain filling‐harvesting stage for OS ,with drought frequencies of 51.61% ,39.78% and 62.22% respectively .High drought risk frequently occurred in central region and Xingtai ,south part of Hengshui and north part of Handan .The time series of relative soil moisture drought index in the different growth stages of winter wheat showed the same change trend in the time series of relative soil moisture drought index of two scenarios .This study suggested that ,in general ,the relative soil moisture drought index was higher in FS than OS ,but the OS ,which based on′Wuqiao Mode′,brought the soil root zone reservoir into play enough ,reduced the irrigation water and could use soil water with high efficiency .The total water amount of 61 785 mm could be saved in OS compared to that in FS ,if irri‐gation schedule of the OS was adopted in 31 profiles through the district in the period of 1961-2005 .It showed that′Wuqiao Mode′can be extended to application in Heilonggang District ,and this mode may avoid drought risk in some degree ,and can reach the goal of saving water and maintaining high yield .关键词
土壤相对湿度/农业干旱/黑龙港地区/冬小麦/吴桥模式Key words
relative soil moisture/agricultural drought/Heilonggang District/winter wheat/Wuqiao mode分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
毛萌,任理,韩琳琳..黑龙港地区的农业干旱风险评估[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(6):18-26,9.基金项目
公益性行业（农业）科研专项（201203031；201303133） FundSpecial Fund for Agro-scientific Research in the Public Interest （）
