南水北调与水利科技2016，Vol.14Issue(6)：39-44,6.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.06.007
徒骇河流域水资源供需预测与可持续利用对策
Forecast of water resources supply-demand and sustainable utilization countermeasures in the Tuhai River Basin
摘要
Abstract
The Tuhai River is located in the south of the Haihe River Basin in Shandong Province and provides water resources for the development of the northern region of Shandong Province .The imbalance between supply and demand of water resources has become more prominent with the rapid development of the society .This paper selected 2010 as the status quo year ,2020 and 2030 as the forecast years .The water supply and demand in the Tuhai River Basin was forecasted according to the typical char‐acteristics and the social and economic development planning ,regardless of the east route of south‐to‐north water diversion pro‐ject ,and then the balance between supply and demand of water resources was analyzed .The results showed that when P=50%(normal year) ,P=75% (low flow year) ,the water deficit of the Tuhai River Basin was respectively 11 .2 × 108m3 ,5 .86 × 108 m3 ,the water deficient ratio was 19 .66% ,11 .31% in 2020 .When P=50% (normal flow year) ,P=75% (low flow year) ,the water deficit of the Tuhai River Basin was respectively 13 .98 × 108 m3 ,8 .82 × 108 m3 ,the water deficient ratio was 3 .20% , 16.01% in 2030 .The water resources in the Tuhai River Basin would not fully meet the requirements of production ,life ,ecolog‐ical system in next 10~20 years ,and some effective measures are required to ensure the sustainable utilization.关键词
供需水量预测/生态需水量/水资源供需平衡/徒骇河流域Key words
forecast of water supply and demand/the ecological water demand/water supply and demand balance/the Tuhai Riv-er Basin分类
地理科学引用本文复制引用
赵芬,徐立荣,李春晖,傅新..徒骇河流域水资源供需预测与可持续利用对策[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(6):39-44,6.基金项目
山东省省级水利科研及技术推广项目（SDSLKY201314）；国家重点基础研究发展计划（2010CB951104） FundShandong Provincial Water Conservancy Scientific Research and Technology Promotion Project （SDSLKY201314）；National Basic Re-search Program of China （）
