南水北调与水利科技2016，Vol.14Issue(6)：111-115,5.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2016.06.019
利用马尔科夫链修正的变维分形模型及其应用
Application of modified variable dimension fractal method by Markov chain in dam safety monitoring
摘要
Abstract
Previous forecast models have strong dependence on the length of the data ,and the data often appears strong nonlin‐ear .Both of these will increase the complexity of the prediction .So in order to make the monitoring data to show a certain linear relationship ,this paper changed constant dimension fractal method to variable dimension fractal method to predict short‐term monitoring data based on fractal theory short‐term monitoring data .The corresponding mathematical model was set up .Howev‐er ,inevitably ,there were some fluctuation errors in the results predicted by the variable dimension fractal method .This paper used the Markov chain to modify these predicted results based on the characteristic of no aftereffect .The results analyzed by Xixi reservoir monitoring data showed that the revised error could be optimized by 0 .89% .Obviously ,it could be concluded that the variable dimension fractal method modified by Markov chain could effectively reduce error and improve the precision of pre‐diction .关键词
大坝安全监测/变维分形/马尔科夫链/误差修正Key words
dam safety monitoring/variable dimension fractal/Markov chain/error correction分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
叶伟,马福恒,周海啸..利用马尔科夫链修正的变维分形模型及其应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2016,14(6):111-115,5.基金项目
水利部公益性行业专项（201401022）；南京水利科学研究院中央级公益性基本科研业务费专项（Y715012；Y715018） FundSpecial Public Welfare Profession of Ministry of Water Resources （201401022）；Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Re-search Fund of Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute （）
