热带气象学报2016，Vol.32Issue(5)：752-758,7.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2016.05.018
谐波分析方法在沿海风速数值预报订正的应用
THE APPLICATION OF HARMONIC ANALYSIS METHOD IN CORRECTION OF NUMERICALLY FORECAST WIND SPEED IN COASTAL AREAS
摘要
Abstract
Using the observation data of a wind tower in the coastal areas of Fujian and the numerical forecasts by the MM5 model at the National Meteorological Center from December 2009 to November 201 0,this paper an-alyzed the variation characteristics of the surface layer wind speed and errors of numerically forecast wind speed in the coastal areas.It was shown that the surface layer wind speed throughout the year and in each of the four seasons has significant diurnal change,with the daily minimum appearing from the morning to the afternoon and daily maximum wind speed occurring from the evening to early morning.The wind speed errors of numerical prediction throughout the year and four seasons also have the features of diurnal change,which has a close rela-tionship with the development of surface-layer turbulence in the coastal areas,and the MM5 numerical predic-tion overestimates the value of actual wind speed.Based on a statistical analysis,this paper proposes a harmonic analysis combined with the artificial neural network (ANN)model for 24 h short-term wind speed correction of the numerical prediction.It was shown that this method can be updated once every 24 hours and relative to the accuracy of wind speed of numerical prediction,the mean absolute errors of two independent samples were re-duced by 25.6% and 28.8%,respectively.The systematic biases of wind speed of MM5 numerical prediction have much declined after correction.关键词
数值预报/风速订正/误差变化特征/谐波分析/BP 神经网络/短期预报Key words
numerical prediction/wind speed correction/error variation characteristics/harmonic analysis/BP neural network/short-range forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王彬滨,吴息,余江,许婷婷,周海..谐波分析方法在沿海风速数值预报订正的应用[J].热带气象学报,2016,32(5):752-758,7.基金项目
江苏省科技支撑计划（BE2010200）；公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201206026）；江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目（PAPD）共同资助 （）
