水利水电科技进展2016，Vol.36Issue(6)：51-57,7.DOI:10.3880/j.issn.10067647.2016.06.010
黄河宁夏段干支流非一致性洪峰遭遇风险分析
Coincidence risk analysis for non-stationary flood peak of Yellow River and its tributaries in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region
摘要
Abstract
The coincidence risk of the non-stationary flood peak between the Yellow River and Qingshui River was analyzed. The variability of flood peak time series was detected using the comprehensive diagnosis method. The mixed Von Mises distribution and mixed P-Ⅲ distribution were used to fit the flood occurrence dates and peak magnitudes, respectively. The asymmetric partially nested Archimedean Copula function was selected to establish the joint distribution of flood peaks of the two rivers, and the occurrence dates and corresponding magnitudes between the two rivers were studied. Diagrams of coincidence risk of floods with different combinations of frequencies of the two rivers were provided. The results indicate that the flood time series in both rivers had changed;the coincidence risk of the flood peak occurrence dates of the two rivers peaked on July 31 and August 31, with values of 3. 36 × 10-4 and 1. 15 × 10-4 , respectively; and the peak coincidence risks of flood peaks with difference frequencies were obtained in two periods, from July 26 to August 2 and from August 31 to September 5.关键词
洪峰遭遇/非一致性/混合分布/Copula函数/风险分析/黄河/清水河Key words
flood peak coincidence/non-stationary/mixed distribution/Copula function/risk analysis/Yellow River/Qingshui River分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李子远,冯平,苑希民..黄河宁夏段干支流非一致性洪峰遭遇风险分析[J].水利水电科技进展,2016,36(6):51-57,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(51179117,51209157) （51179117,51209157）
