沙漠与绿洲气象2016，Vol.10Issue(5)：58-63,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-0799.2016.05.009
MODES系统对贵州月气温、降水预测初步评估
Assessment of Multi-model Downscaling Ensemble Prediction System for Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Prediction in Guizhou
摘要
Abstract
Based on the outputs of different climate models, National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration (CMA)established a multi-model downscaling ensemble prediction system (MODES)in 2011. Since then the system has been used widely in the domestic seasonal prediction operation. By assessing and verifying the prediction of MODES for monthly temperature and precipitation in Guizhou province during January 2013 to June 2015, this paper indicates that the system has a good temperature prediction skill in the province. The correlation coefficient and the total ration of same anomaly symbol between MODES and observation are 0.24 and 65.5%. Prediction skill of positive temperature anomaly is higher than the negative anomaly. Compared to temperature prediction, the prediction skill for precipitation in MODES is lower, but the prediction skill of positive precipitation anomaly is higher than the negative anomaly. Spatial distribution of verification results show that the high skill scores appear in the western, northern and eastern part of Guizhou province for temperature, and in most regions for precipitation except in part of northwestern and northern regions. During the research period, the prediction skill scores are stably higher than the scores of the subjective forecasts made by the forecaster, especially for negative temperature anomaly and for positive precipitation anomaly.关键词
多模式解释应用集成预测系统(MODES)/距平同号率/Ps评分/检验评估Key words
multi-model sownscaling ensemble prediction system (MODES)/ratio of the same anomaly symbol/PS score/assessment and verification分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
白慧,高辉,刘长征,毛炜峄,杜良敏..MODES系统对贵州月气温、降水预测初步评估[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(5):58-63,6.基金项目
贵州省科技厅攻关项目-贵州省干旱灾害风险评估研究，贵州省气象局气象科技开放研究基金项目和2016年贵州省气象局气候预测业务项目共同资助。 （）
