中国电机工程学报2016，Vol.36Issue(21)：5879-5889,11.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.151500
考虑小水电出力不确定性的小水电与大中型水电站群短期联合调度方法
A Short-term Joint Operation Method of Small and Large Hydropower Plants Under Small Hydropower Uncertainty
摘要
Abstract
It is difficult to make dispatch decisions of power systems when large-scale small hydropower (SHP) connected to the power grid because of randomness and unpredictability characters of SHP. Regarding the uncertainty characters of large-scale SHP, this paper used a scenario analysis method, which is a method of stochastic programming theory, to construct power scenario set for description power characteristics of SHP. And fuzzy clustering and clustering comprehensive quality algorithm were proposed for reduction scenarios while establishment the conditional probability distribution of forecast and actual power under the current prediction accuracy. SHP uncertainty problem was transformed into a deterministic finite condition scenarios problem. An expectancy model for peak shaving operation was established of SHP and large hydropower (LHP) system. The similarity was analyzed between the current forecast power and prediction scenarios in order to discriminate prediction scene category and obtain possible actual scenarios in the future. Then a successive search algorithm was proposed to solve the model. The proposed method was applied to the dispatching center of Yunnan Electric Power Dispatching Center for generation scheduling between small and large hydropower plants. Based on the practical data simulation, the results show that the proposed method is useful for improving expect peak shaving effect and reliability of hydropower schemes.关键词
小水电/大中型水电/情景分析/调峰/优化调度Key words
small hydropower/large hydropower/scenario analysis/peak shaving/optimal operation分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
吴慧军,程春田,武新宇,李秀峰,蔡华祥..考虑小水电出力不确定性的小水电与大中型水电站群短期联合调度方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(21):5879-5889,11.基金项目
国家863高技术基金项目(2012AA050205)；国家自然科学重大国际合作项目(51210014)；国家自然科学基金项目(51109024)。The National High Technology Research and Development of China 863 Program (2012AA050205) （2012AA050205）
Major International Joint Research Project from the National Nature Science Foundation of China (51210014) （51210014）
Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (51109024) （51109024）
