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Quantifying the attribution of model bias in simulating summer hot days in China with IAP AGCM 4.1

LIN Zhao-Hui YU Zheng ZHANG He WU Cheng-Lai

大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2016，Vol.9Issue(6)：436-442,7.

Quantifying the attribution of model bias in simulating summer hot days in China with IAP AGCM 4.1

LIN Zhao-Hui ¹YU Zheng ²ZHANG He ¹WU Cheng-Lai³

作者信息

1. International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences(ICCES), Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing,China
2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, China
3. College of Earth Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
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摘要

Abstract

本文利用IAP大气环流模式1961-2005年的模拟结果,分析发现模式虽然可较好模拟出中国大陆夏季高温日数的空间分布特征,但对高温日数的模拟则普遍高估.通过分析观测和模式模拟的日最高温度的概率分布特征,定量评估了日最高温的均值和方差的模拟偏差对模式高估极端高温日数的相对贡献,指出日最高温度均值的模拟偏高是模式高估高温日数的主要原因,但日最高温方差的模拟偏差对高温日数的高估也有重要影响,以江淮地区8月份为例,其贡献可达22％.进一步分析表明,IAP模式未能模拟出江淮流域1980s年代前后极端高温日数的年代际减少,主要归因于模式未能模拟出1980s前后日最高气温均值的年代际减小,而模式未能模拟出日最高温方差的年代际减弱也起很大作用.

关键词

高温日数/概率分布方差/误差归因/模式评估/IAP大气环流模式

Key words

Hot days/variance in probability distribution/bias attribution/model evaluation/IAP AGCM

引用本文复制引用

LIN Zhao-Hui,YU Zheng,ZHANG He,WU Cheng-Lai..Quantifying the attribution of model bias in simulating summer hot days in China with IAP AGCM 4.1[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2016,9(6):436-442,7.

基金项目

This research was jointly supported by the Special Scientific Research Fund of the Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China [grant number GYHY01406021] （）

National Key Research and Development Program [grant number 2016YFC0402702] （）

the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant numbers 41575095,41175073]. （）

大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

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ISSN：1674-2834

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