经济与管理研究2016，Vol.37Issue(12)：57-65,9.DOI:10.13502/j.cnki.issn1000-7636.2016.12.007
Research on Economics and Management
Extension of Mundell-Fleming Model and RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics
摘要
Abstract
This paper reviews several controversies over RMB exchange rates,and reveals the international monetary system background of persistent imbalances of international payments.In connection with that the situation that Mundell-Fleming model,designed for a single small economy under Bretton Woods System,is no longer relevant to analysing RMB exchange rate and imbalances of international payment,this paper extends Mundell-Fleming model to the one that includes two big countries,and finds that there is a nonlinear relationship among exchange rates,interest rates and income of two countries,which can provide another theoretical explanation for the deviation of exchange rate from its baseline and imbalances of international payment.Moreover,the paper believes that it is necessary to adopt flexible exchange rate regime and strengthen coordination of macroeconomic policies between big countries.Using the VEC model,this paper estimates both RMB nominal effective exchange rate and RMB-USD exchange rate,finding that both are currently overvalued and may experience depreciation for some time in the future.关键词
大国模型/人民币汇率/国际收支失衡/蒙代尔-弗莱明模型Key words
big country model/exchange rate/imbalance of international payment/Mundell-Fleming model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
赵志君,李睿..Research on Economics and Management[J].经济与管理研究,2016,37(12):57-65,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目“中国－中亚货币合作与人民币区域化和国际化研究”（71263050）；中国社会科学院创新工程项目“经济危机相关理论及其历史作用研究” （）
