农业现代化研究2016，Vol.37Issue(6)：1068-1075,8.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2017.0127
基于灰色预测模型的山东省粮食灾损量评估及灾害关联度分析
An estimation of grain loss caused by natural disasters in Shandong Province based on grey prediction model and its correlation with disasters
摘要
Abstract
Based on the data of grain production and natural disasters from 1978 to 2012 in Shandong Province, and applying the grey prediction model, this paper conducted a quantitative analysis of the effect of the natural disasters on grain production and the grain loss and calculate the correlation coefifcients between different kinds of grain loss caused by natural disasters and different kinds of natural disasters. Results show that: 1) The annual average of grain loss caused by natural disasters is 1.465 0 million tons from 1979 to 2012. The average period of its lfuctuation is 5.67 years. And the lfuctuation range is decreasing with a trend of decreasing, increasing and decreasing pattern. 2) The average period of the lfuctuation of wheat loss is 6.6 years from 1979 to 2012 with a changing rate of -0.33% on average. And the period of the lfuctuation of corn loss is 3.67 years on average with a changing rate of -0.43%. And 3) the levels of all kinds of the natural disasters’ effects on wheat and corn are in the following decreasing order: drought, strong wind and hail, and lfood.关键词
灰色预测模型/灾损量/粮食生产/自然灾害/山东省Key words
grey prediction model/grain loss caused by natural disasters/grain production/natural disasters/Shandong Province分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
栾健,周玉玺..基于灰色预测模型的山东省粮食灾损量评估及灾害关联度分析[J].农业现代化研究,2016,37(6):1068-1075,8.基金项目
国家社科基金项目（16BJY053）；教育部人文社科基金项目（11YJA630217）；山东农业大学现代农业发展研究院项目(14xsk2-02)。 （14xsk2-02）
