电力系统自动化2016，Vol.40Issue(23)：93-100,8.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20160301008
引入聚类分析的光伏出力建模及其在可靠性评估中的应用
Photovoltaic Output Modeling by Introducing Clustering Analysis and Its Application in Reliability Evaluation
摘要
Abstract
Modeling of photovoltaic(PV)system output is the premise of evaluation of its capacity value and planning.For such modeling,how to deal with stochastic and fluctuant nature of solar irradiation is the key point.Based on the theory of cluster analysis,the output model of PV system is established from the data mining perspective and the model is applied in the reliability evaluation of power system incorporating PV generation.Firstly,the conventional fuzzy C-means (FCM) algorithm is improved to solve the problem of initial iterative value sensitivity.Secondly,the improved FCM algorithm is used to make a cluster analysis on historical solar irradiation data.The number of clusters and the clustering centers are determined.Then, based on the membership matrix and Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) method,the simulation method of solar irradiation is proposed.Finally,through the IEEE-RTS system,the method proposed is used to evaluate the generation system reliability. The simulation results have demonstrated that the proposed model and method are effective and highly efficient.关键词
太阳辐照强度/光伏发电/聚类分析/模糊C-均值算法/蒙特卡洛模拟/可靠性评估Key words
solar irradiation/photovoltaic generation/cluster analysis/fuzzy C-means (FCM) algorithm/Monte Carlo simulation/reliability evaluation引用本文复制引用
郭一飞,高厚磊,田佳..引入聚类分析的光伏出力建模及其在可靠性评估中的应用[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(23):93-100,8.基金项目
本文得到山东省电力公司重点科技项目(SGSDWF00YJJS1400563)的资助,谨此致谢! （SGSDWF00YJJS1400563）
