海洋科学2016，Vol.40Issue(9)：107-116,10.DOI:10.11759/hykx20150708001
北部湾沿海土地利用变化时空特征及情景分析
Spatio-temporal characteristics and scenario analysis of land-use change in the Beibu Gulf Economic Rim coastal area, China
摘要
Abstract
Considering the Beibu Gulf Economic Rim coastal area as an example, land-use maps from 2000, 2005, and 2010 were created on the basis of remote sensing techniques. Moreover, the spatio-temporal characteristics of land-use change from 2000 to 2010 were revealed. Then, a Logistic-CA-Markov model was developed to simulate land-use change and forecast its future tendencies under different scenarios. Results show that from 2000 to 2010, farmland, grassland, coastal wetland, and unused land decreased, whereas forest, inland wetland, urban areas, rural settlements, and isolated industrial-mining areas increased. Farmland is the main source of land transformation and has been changed into forest, rural settlements, urban areas, and isolated industrial-mining areas. In addition, from 2005 to 2010, parts of the increased urban and isolated industrial-mining areas were reclaimed from coastal wetland and sea areas, which in turn, markedly changed the mainland shoreline. Under a business-as-usual scenario, land-use change will follow the trend as from 2005 to 2010; under an urbanization priority scenario, urban areas, rural settlements, and isolated industrial-mining areas will increase significantly and will occupy farmland, water bodies, or wetlands in both inland and coastal areas; under an ecological protection priority scenario, wetlands, natural conservation areas, vegetation cover, and farmlands will be effectively protected from excessive reclamation. Information from this study can be useful for strategies on urbanization optimization, coastal wetland conversation, and reasonable land-use planning in hotspot areas.关键词
土地利用变化/北部湾经济带/Logistic回归/CA-Markov模型/情景分析Key words
Land-use change/Beibu Gulf Economic Rim/Logistic Regression/CA-Markov model/Scenario Analysis分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
苏红帆,侯西勇,邸向红..北部湾沿海土地利用变化时空特征及情景分析[J].海洋科学,2016,40(9):107-116,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(31461143032),中国科学院重点部署项目(KZZD-EW-TZ-15, KZZD-EW-14)@@@@Foundation：National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.31461143032 （31461143032）
Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No. KZZD- EW-TZ-15 and No. KZZD-EW-14 （）
