西南石油大学学报（社会科学版）2016，Vol.18Issue(6)：19-26,8.DOI:10.11885/j.issn.1674-5094.2016.08.26.01
油价低迷背景下国际石油市场均衡状态研究
A Study on International Oil Market Equilibrium in the Context of Low Oil Price
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,the international oil market is in the state of supply exceeding demand and the price of oil continues to decline,due to the global economic depression,U.S. breakthrough in shale gas technology,OPEC countries maintaining its production,and financial and geopolitics factors. The international oil market is entering a“rebalancing”period,and oil supply and demand and oil price are faced with a new round of restructuring. Using the equilibrium model,we analyze the supply and demand of international oil market,and find that the fundamentals of oil supply and demand is not easy to change in the short term,and oil price will stay low. But in the mid-long term,oil price could reach and stay at about$80 per barrel. Therefore,as a major oil producer,consumer and importer,China should seize this opportunity to accelerate structural reform of China’s oil and gas industry and energy structure,to build a more complete strategic oil reserve system and to accelerate the construction of crude oil futures market,so that we can better ensure the national oil safety.关键词
低油价/国际石油市场/市场均衡/石油安全/能源结构Key words
low oil price/international oil market/market equilibrium/oil security/energy structure分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
胡国松,李海东..油价低迷背景下国际石油市场均衡状态研究[J].西南石油大学学报（社会科学版）,2016,18(6):19-26,8.基金项目
四川省软科学研究计划项目“世界石油贸易格局走势与中国的石油进口安全”（2015ZR0223）；四川石油天然气发展研究中心项目“新常态下中国石油产业创新驱动发展战略研究”（SKW1406）。 （）
