生态环境学报2016，Vol.25Issue(9)：1476-1482,7.DOI:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2016.09.008
西藏地区近40年温度和降水量变化的时空格局分析
Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Temperature and Precipitation in Recent 40 Years in Tibet
摘要
Abstract
In the context of global climate change, climate change will affect the ecological environment of agriculture, forestry and grassland to varying degrees. To formulate a scientific and reasonable climate change response strategy, we need to accurately grasp the temporal and spatial characteristics and laws of regional climate change. In order to comprehensively analyze and understand the spatial and temporal pattern of temperature and precipitation in Tibet, the annual mean temperature and annual precipitation value and the seasonal variation trend and spatial-temporal pattern of 1971—2010 were analyzed. The results show that: (1) The annual average temperature increased in general, 39.72% of the total area increased 1.6~2.4℃, 10.72% of the total area increased 2.4~3.2℃, some areas increased by 4℃ above.The spatial distribution:only the average annual temperature in the southern region of the three counties (Cuona, Medog and Zayu counties) decreased, while the average temperature in other areas increased. Precipitation change: 42.09% of the area changes in ±1 mm∙a-1, 12.41% of the area (compared with 40 years ago), the annual precipitation decreased by 40mm above, 45.49% area shows an increasing trend. The spatial distribution of precipitation: precipitation reduction area is mainly distributed in the northeast of Ali to the northwest of Naqu, Shigatse west to Ali Shiquanhe area, south of Shigatse and southeast of Nyingchi. (2) The seasonal mean temperature and precipitation of the four seasons showed that the temperature increased in all four seasons, the order of increase was autumn>spring>winter>summer; The precipitation in the four seasons is greatly different, and the increase is mainly in the spring and summer, and the decrease is mainly in the autumn and winter, among the four seasons the precipitation of winter decreased the most reached an area of 96.78%. (3) During the recent 40 years, the temperature change has obvious mutation point, and the mutation time has spatial differentiation. (4) Due to the obvious increase of temperature and the difference of precipitation, it will lead to the change of dry and wet climate in some areas. The drought in the western part of Tibet is easy to occur throughout the year. Seasonal drought is easy to occur in southern Tibet and southeastern Tibet, which will adversely affect agricultural production, natural grassland forage growth and grassland animal husbandry. The study suggests that the relevant departments and farmers and herdsmen should pay attention to and formulate scientific and reasonable response strategies and programs as soon as possible to deal with the uncertainty of climate change.关键词
气候变化/温度/降水量/时空格局/西藏Key words
climate change/temperature/precipitation/spatial and temporal pattern/Tibet分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
杨文才,多吉顿珠,范春捆,周启龙..西藏地区近40年温度和降水量变化的时空格局分析[J].生态环境学报,2016,25(9):1476-1482,7.基金项目
农业部公益性科研行业（农业）专项（201203006）；国家科技部星火项目（2015GA840007）；西藏主要气象灾害对农业的影响与数据库建设项目 （）
