中国人口·资源与环境2016，Vol.26Issue(11)：28-36,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2016.11.004
土地城镇化与人口城镇化的非协调性和互动关系
Incoordination between urban expansion and urban population growth and their interaction
摘要
Abstract
The incoordination between urban expansion and urban population growth is a major problem in China's current urbanization process.However, relatively few scholars have investigated the incoordination between urban expansion and urban population growth in various regions comprehensively and systematically, and relatively little empirical attention has been paid to the interaction between urban expansion and urban population growth.This research examined the incoordination between urban expansion and urban population growth in various provincial-level divisions using provincial-level data in China in the period 2005-2013.This study also explored the interaction between urban expansion and urban population growth by developing and estimating panel vector autoregressive model.The research findings suggested that there was significant temporal and regional variations in the incoordination between urban expansion and urban population growth.The degree of urban population growth lagging behind of urban expansion became higher in many provincial-level divisions in the second subsample period (2009-2013).The various provincial-level divisions could be classified into five categories according to the extent of the incoordination between urban expansion and urban population growth.Urban population changes had a positive and statistically significant effect on the changes in built-up area.Although the changes in built-up area had a positive effect on urban population changes, the effect was not statistically significant.Thus, the research findings suggested that urban population growth could promote urban expansion, but urban expansion was not able to effectively push forward urban population growth.It is also found that the changes in the value-added of the secondary and tertiary industries had a positive and statistically significant effect on urban population growth.The paper put forward policy suggestions including reform of quota allocation for newly-developed construction land, restricting of extensive urban expansion, reform of household registration system and equalization of basic public services, thus promoting coordinated development of urban population growth and urban expansion in China.关键词
土地城镇化/人口城镇化/面板向量自回归模型/格兰杰因果关系检验Key words
urban expansion/urban population growth/panel vector autoregressive model/Granger causality test分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
严思齐,吴群..土地城镇化与人口城镇化的非协调性和互动关系[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(11):28-36,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目"政府主导模式下的住宅用地供应绩效与优化策略研究"(批准号:71603120) （批准号:71603120）
国家自然科学基金重点项目"我国土地资源效率提升能力与系统建设研究——基于转变经济发展方式的视角"(批准号:71233004) （批准号:71233004）
南京农业大学中央高校基本科研业务费人文社会科学基金项目"房价变动对地方政府财政收入的影响研究"(批准号:SK2016028). （批准号:SK2016028）
