中国人口·资源与环境2016，Vol.26Issue(11)：160-169,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2016.11.020
虚拟水贸易的可计算非线性动态投入产出分析模型
Computable nonlinear dynamic input-output analysis model of virtual water trade
摘要
Abstract
The virtual water theory is a creative field in the management of water resource demands.The input-output model is one of the most important methods for the study of virtual water, but most current researches have been linear and static, with strong proportionality assumption, and have had some defects and deficiency in the explanation of virtual water trade in the realistic economic activities.In order to be closer to the reality, this paper put forward a new calculation method for virtual water based on the idea of computable general equilibrium (CGE), which added nonlinear and dynamism to the traditional input-output model to achieve more scientific and reasonable calculation and investigation of the virtual water trade in the regional economic system.First, according to the 42 industrial sectors commonly used by the national statistical agencies and the general equilibrium theory, as well as based on the production module, price module and supply and demand balance module of regional economic system, this paper defined the related variables and parameters, and wrote the equation describing the nonlinear dynamic input-output relation of regional economic system.Then, nesting the factors of the virtual water flow into the regular nonlinear and dynamic input-output model, and combining the economic value flow meter and water flow meter, it designed a new method for the compilation of regional water resources input and output table, so that the nonlinear dynamic output model could be calculated from the general form to the field of water resources, and the nonlinear dynamic input-output analysis framework of the virtual water trade in the regional economic system was established.Through the analysis above, it also showed that by solving this model, the output structure and water structure of the regional economic system under the balanced growth path and the optimal growth path could be deduced and calculated, and the contribution of the virtual water trade to the regional economic growth in the optimal growth path could also be analyzed according to the mechanism of the effect of virtual water trade on regional economy.关键词
虚拟水贸易/可计算/非线性/动态/投入产出Key words
virtual water trade/computation/nonlinear/dynamic/input-output分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
马超,许长新,田贵良,吴丹,石常峰,吴兆丹..虚拟水贸易的可计算非线性动态投入产出分析模型[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(11):160-169,10.基金项目
金项目:中国科协青年人才托举工程资助项目(2015-2017) （2015-2017）
国家自然科学基金资助项目"应对极端水旱灾害的虚拟水期权契约设计研究"(批准号:41301630)、"虚拟水贸易视角下区域农业水土资源耦合模型研究"(批准号:51279058)、"基于粮食安全的虚拟水贸易对气候变化动态响应与调整"(批准号:41471456)、"'生产-消费'视角下我国水足迹空间异质性研究"(批准号:41401634). （批准号:41301630）
