交通信息与安全2016，Vol.34Issue(5)：102-107,6.DOI:10.3963/j.issn1674-4861.2016.05.015
基于改进贝叶斯网络模型的高速公路交通设施风险评估
Risk Assessment of Traffic Facility on Freeway Based on a Modified Bayesian Network Model
摘要
Abstract
Traffic facilities play an important role in traffic safety.Assessing the risk of facilities on freeways is one of the effective methods to prevent traffic accidents.In order to evaluate the risk, this study analyzes the effects of facilities on freeway safety.The nodes and network are extracted by factor analysis.According to the relationship of nodes in a network, combined with probability theory (such as the conditional probability), this paper modifies the Bayesian formula after rounding off unrelated variables and no-effect constants, and establishes a modified Bayesian model for assessing facilities on freeways.With the traffic data of freeways and the result of a survey, the risk of facilities can be assessed.The results computed by the modified model show that the smaller the value, the higher the risk of freeway facilities.Using the data of Huiwu freeway to verify this proposed model, it shows that when the value is smaller than 0.5, the number of crashes is relatively larger, correspondingly, the risk of facilities is higher;otherwise, the risk of facilities is lower.关键词
交通安全/高速公路/交通设施/风险评估/贝叶斯网络模型Key words
traffic safety/freeway/traffic facility/risk assessment/Bayesian network model分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
张道玉,胡晓伟..基于改进贝叶斯网络模型的高速公路交通设施风险评估[J].交通信息与安全,2016,34(5):102-107,6.基金项目
吉林省交通运输厅科技项目(2014-1-3)资助 （2014-1-3）
