气象2016，Vol.42Issue(11)：1364-1371,8.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.11.008
匹配域投影降尺度方法在黄河流域夏季降水预测中的应用
Application of Pattern Proj ection Downscaling Method in the Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Yellow River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Flood and drought caused by summer precipitation anomaly are the most serious disasters in Yellow River Basin,so it is very important to predict the summer precipitation in the Yellow River Basin. Based on summer precipitation observation in the River Basin,and the BCC-CGCM model data,a pattern projection downscaling method is used to predict summer precipitation there.The results show that:(1) The prediction result of pattern proj ection downscaling method is better and more stable than model output prediction for Yellow River Basin.The monthly prediction is better than seasonal prediction.(2 )The pat-tern proj ection downscaling method produces different predictions for different areas in the Yellow River Basin.In summer (JJA),the better prediction regions are dispersive.But the better prediction regions are collective in monthly prediction.The prediction capability of the method varies with month.(3 )The re-sults of independent sample test on the data from 2009 to 2013 show that the prediction of pattern projec-tion downscaling method for Yellow River Basin is better than model output.Especially in June and July, the prediction of downscaling is greatly superior to the model output.关键词
降尺度/夏季降水预测/气候模式/检验Key words
downscaling method/summer precipitation prediction/climate model/test分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
史恒斌,常军,梁俊平..匹配域投影降尺度方法在黄河流域夏季降水预测中的应用[J].气象,2016,42(11):1364-1371,8.基金项目
中国气象局2016年度预报预测核心业务发展专项（CMAHX20160403）和河南省气象科学技术研究项目（Z201606和Z201602）共同资助 （）
