气象2016，Vol.42Issue(11)：1372-1378,7.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.11.009
上海地区汛期暴雨的延伸期预测方法及应用
Exploration and Application of the Extended Period Rainstorm Forecast in Shanghai
摘要
Abstract
Based on the wind field and vapor field at 700 hPa of NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis dataset,and the precipitation data of 11 stations in Shanghai,this paper applies the method of the extended period rain-storm forecast in Shanghai.Based on the data of 112 rainstorm days in the past 10 years,the static predic-tion model of low frequency system is established.One is the type of northern low-frequency anticyclone and the south low-frequency cyclone,while the other is the type of northern low-frequency cyclone and the south low-frequency anticyclone.Further research shows that rainstorms with a daily rainfall of 100 mm or more are mainly low-frequency cyclones,accounting for 60% of the total number of rainstorms.Low-fre-quency cyclone-type mobile characteristics are very consistent in the 30 days before the occurrence of rain-storms.This consistency can be used to establish the dynamic prediction model of heavy rain.Using this method,the heaviest rainfalls in the flood season in the last 5 years are forecasted accurately,and the lead time is more than 12 days.关键词
延伸期预报/暴雨/低频系统/动态模型Key words
extended forecast/rainstorm/low frequency weather system/dynamic model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
信飞,陈伯民,穆海振,孙国武..上海地区汛期暴雨的延伸期预测方法及应用[J].气象,2016,42(11):1372-1378,7.基金项目
中国气象局2016年小型基建项目“全国预测预报业务系统建设（二期）”资助 （）
