交通运输研究2016，Vol.2Issue(6)：7-12,6.DOI:10.16503/j.cnki.2095-9931.2016.06.002
基于系统动力学的城际铁路建设对区域经济发展趋势的影响研究
Impact of Intercity Rail Construction on Regional Economy Developing Trend Based on System Dynamics Model
摘要
Abstract
Under the background of new urbanization, the impact of Lanzhou—Zhongchuan intercity railway construction on developing trend of regional economy was studied at the macro-level. Based on the analysis of the causal relationship among social economy, employment population, transportation and other related factors, a system dynamics model of the impact of intercity railway investment on Lanzhou economy trend was established. Through collecting data, the subsystem parameters of the model were de⁃termined, and the linear analysis on GDP and investment in fixed assets was put forward by using SPSS software. The forecast of the regional economy development trend of Lanzhou was made and the policy scene adjustment simulation was carried out on the basis of the forecast results. Considering the invest⁃ment in the intercity railway from Lanzhou to Zhongchuan is a short-term unsustainable project, the re⁃sults show that although the increase of railway investment ratio has played a certain role in promoting the regional economy, its effect is limited and insignificant. In the future investment and construction, the long-term sustainable transport investment projects should be considered, so it can play a good role in promoting the regional economy developing.关键词
新型城镇化/城际铁路/系统动力学/区域经济/铁路投资Key words
new urbanization/intercity railway/system dynamics/regional economy/railway invest-ment分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
乌云毕力格,曾俊伟,钱勇生,广晓平..基于系统动力学的城际铁路建设对区域经济发展趋势的影响研究[J].交通运输研究,2016,2(6):7-12,6.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目（15BJY037）；国家社科基金青年项目（14CJY052）；甘肃省自然科学基金项目（1606RJZA017）；甘肃省自然科学基金项目 （）
