交通运输研究2016，Vol.2Issue(6)：38-46,9.DOI:10.16503/j.cnki.2095-9931.2016.06.007
基于云模型和蒙特卡洛方法的通航环境系统风险评价
Risk Evaluation of Navigation Environment Based on Cloud Model and Monte Carlo Method
摘要
Abstract
There are some uncertainties in practical risk evaluation of navigation environment, which makes it difficult to implement the related work. To make full use of uncertainty information and over⁃come their negative effect, the cloud model theory and Monte Carlo method were focused on and intro⁃duced to navigation environment risk evaluation. A navigation environment risk evaluation model based on normal cloud model and Monte Carlo method was constructed and its approach steps were given. In this comprehensive model, the normal cloud model was used as a conversion tool between qualitative de⁃scription and quantitative expression to fulfill the risk evaluation of model factors;three key parameters of this model were calculated by executing a Monte Carlo process. The feasibility and effectiveness of this comprehensive model were verified by applying it to the comprehensive risk evaluation of navigation environment of Hangzhou Bay Sea-Crossing Bridge Waters. The result shows that the proposed model could be used as an effective method to evaluate navigation environment risk in case of uncertainty.关键词
安全科学/通航环境/综合风险评价/云模型/蒙特卡洛方法Key words
safety science/navigation environment/comprehensive risk evaluation/cloud model/Monte Carlo method分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
田延飞,润玉宏,张丹,魏晓阳..基于云模型和蒙特卡洛方法的通航环境系统风险评价[J].交通运输研究,2016,2(6):38-46,9.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目（武汉理工大学自主创新基金项目）（2014-JL-010）；内河航运技术湖北省重点实验室开放基金项目 （）
