中国人口·资源与环境2016，Vol.26Issue(12)：46-54,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2016.12.007
不同返还情景下碳税对中国经济影响及减排效果——基于动态CGE的模拟分析
Analysis of impacts of carbon taxes on China's economy and emissions reduction underdifferent refunds: based on dynamic CGE Model
摘要
Abstract
This paper applies a multi-sectoral dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on the development of China's economy and the reality of carbon emissions to analyze the impacts of a carbon tax on China's economy and carbon intensity under the rate 40 yuan/ton without tax relief as a baseline scenario.On this basis, six schemes of tax refunds are designed, which include refunding part of tax to the renewable energy sector, refunding part of tax to the service sector, returning all carbon tax to residents, cutting company income tax, cutting residents' income tax and cutting production tax, and the different impacts of a carbon tax on China's economy and emissions reduction under these different schemes are compared.To be specific, it studies the different levels of relieving negative effects of a carbon tax under these six schemes of tax refunds and simulates the different impacts of a carbon tax on China's economic growth, social welfare, rural and urban residents' income and consumption, and the output of each sector.From the perspective of achieving the emissions reduction targets of 2020 and 2030, it compares the change trends of carbon intensity and the proportion of non-fossil energy in the primary energy consumption.Results show that, the carbon tax has negative effects on China's economy under the baseline scenario.The negative effect of carbon tax can be reduced at different levels, and the reduction target in 2020 and 2030 can be achieved, under the six tax refunds policies.Returning part of carbon tax to a certain sector (renewable energy or service sector) can promote its output, but the strength is slight, so the impacts of these two tax refunds policies are weak compared with other policies.Therefore, it is necessary to consider sectoral differences when making subsidy policies and to pay more attention to supporting those sectors that meet the requirements of green development.Returning all carbon tax to residents will not only improve residents' income, but also stimulate consumption, which will foster social economy development.Compared with returning part of carbon tax to a certain sector, this policy is more effective to improve social welfare, but it further widens the income and consumption gap between rural and urban residents over time.Cutting company's income tax can promote company investment and industrial structure adjustment.Cutting residents' income tax can stimulate consumption greatly.Cutting production tax can promote imports, boost employment, and reduce the output of fossil energy sector, so on the whole this policy is more effective and feasible compared with other policies.关键词
碳税/动态CGE模型/税收返还/减排目标Key words
carbon tax/dynamic CGE model/tax refund/emissions reduction targets分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
许士春,张文文..不同返还情景下碳税对中国经济影响及减排效果——基于动态CGE的模拟分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2016,26(12):46-54,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"福利视角下碳税政策建模与实证研究"(批准号:71573253) （批准号:71573253）
中央基本科研业务费(批准号:2013W03) （批准号:2013W03）
中国博士后特别资助项目(批准号:2015T80594). （批准号:2015T80594）
