气象与环境学报2016，Vol.32Issue(6)：1-9,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.06.001
辽宁地区“8．16”特大暴雨过程数值预报产品检验
Validation on numerical forecast products during the “8 .16”severe torrential rain in Liaoning province
摘要
Abstract
Based on observational data from surface meteorological stations and radiosonde data,the forecast prod-ucts,such as precipitation,geopotential height field at 500 hPa,subtropical high index,from different numerical models for the severe torrential rain event on August 16,2013 were validated and comparatively analyzed.The re-sults show that general precipitation forecast accuracy of the the T639 model is better than that of the the EC mod-el,and the mean forecast accuracy of rainstorm from the EC model is slightly better than that from the T639 mod-el.The spatial distribution pattern of positive and negative precipitation anomaly of the T639 is similar to that of the EC.The precipitation predicted by different numerical models is all significantly smaller than observations dur-ing the main precipitation period (1 1:00-23:00 on August 16)at Qingyuan station,and the 3-h maximum precipi-tation predicted by the WRF model is much larger than the real precipitation.The precipitation grades predicted by the T639 and the EC are both smaller than the real grades.The 72-h precipitation area and the center position of strong precipitation predicted by the EC and an ensemble model are relatively stable.The 15-d moving averaged validating results have some referential meaning to the precipitation forecast.The consistency of 72-h characteristics line predicted by the EC is better than that predicted by the T639 ,and the dispersion of precipitation predicted by the EC over the most regions of Liaoning province as well as upper trough in the upstream region is smaller than that predicted by the T639 .关键词
暴雨/预报/500 hPa位势高度场/副热带高压指数/稳定性/检验Key words
Rainstorm/Precipitation forecast/Geopotential height field at 500 hPa/Subtropical high index/Predic-tion stability/Validation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
梁寒,陈传雷,聂安祺,田莉,贺慧,黄阁..辽宁地区“8．16”特大暴雨过程数值预报产品检验[J].气象与环境学报,2016,32(6):1-9,9.基金项目
中国气象局预报员专项“制约辽宁局地长历时暴雨的环境特征分析”（CMAYBY2015-015）和预报预测核心业务发展专项“辽宁区域性大暴雨预报技术集成与应用”（CMAHX20160103）共同资助。 （）
