气象2016，Vol.42Issue(12)：1445-1455,11.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.12.002
中短期数字化天气预报技术现状及趋势
Situation and Tendency of Operational Technologies in Short- and Medium-Range Weather Forecast
摘要
Abstract
Operational technologies in short- and medium-range weather forecast need further strengthening for the development of seamless and intensified weather forecast operational framework.Through revie-wing present status of development,we find that,by the meteorological modernization during 2011-2015,the preliminary digitization for the technical flow in the short- and medium-range operational forecast has been developed in the national and some provincial operational units of China,including the numerical weather prediction system,the objective method application,the subjective editing and the downscaling gridded post-processing.However,comparison with the developed countries shows that there are still some problems in the short- and medium-range operational technologies of China,such as lower-level de-velopment of numerical model,insufficiency of complete and in-depth application of the objective technical method,lack of effective technology tools to support calibration of forecasters and the weak foundation of processing technique for gridding.Based on the review of present status of development and the analysis of current problems,suggestions are made that in the future development,the foundation role of the inde-pendent numerical model system should be enhanced,the objective techniques of forecast information ex-traction and calibration should be further developed,platform of subjective and objective blending tech-niques and tools should be developed greatly,and the development concepts of the downscaling gridded processing technique should be improved,followed by detailed exposition.Finally,ideas for reference are provided on four aspects,which are the basic data support for technical development,selection of the tech-nical route,laws of technical development as well as exchange and sharing of techniques.关键词
中短期天气预报/无缝隙业务体系/预报技术体系/格点化预报Key words
short- and medium-range weather forecast/seamless operational framework/framework of weather forecast technology/gridded weather forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
代刊,曹勇,钱奇峰,高嵩,赵声蓉,谌芸,钱传海..中短期数字化天气预报技术现状及趋势[J].气象,2016,42(12):1445-1455,11.基金项目
公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201306002和GYHY201206005）共同资助 （）
