气象2016，Vol.42Issue(12)：1456-1464,9.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2016.12.003
基于CRA空间检验技术的西南地区东部强降水EC模式预报误差分析
The ECMWF Model Precipitation Systematic Error in the East of Southwest China Based on the Contiguous Rain Area Method for Spatial Forecast Verification
摘要
Abstract
The contiguous rain area (CRA)is an object-oriented verification procedure.By setting a thresh-old for precipitation,the CRA is identified and isolated,and the forecast error of the rain area can be ana-lyzed.This method can avoid the “double penalty”effect of traditional score method.The horizontal dis-placement is determined by translating the forecast rain field to the observation.This allows a decomposi-tion of total error into components due to the rain location,amount and pattern.1 1 9 CRAs from May to September in 2011-2014 over the east of Southwest China were found by using the CRA technique.Their location and intensity errors of the forecast by ECMWF model in 3 6 h were analyzed by the CRA verifica-tion method in this paper.Then these cases were classified into three types according to the weather sys-tems,i.e.,the low vortex and shear line over the east of Southwest China (the first type),the shear line located over Jianghuai Basin and the east of Southwest China (the second type),and the southerly wind type (the third type),respectively.The systematical error of each type was presented.The results showed that the pattern error for all CRAs is the greatest about 60% of the total error,then is the location error, about 30%,and the amount error is the least,about 10%.The average location error is 0.7°westward to observation,and the meridional displacement error is not clear.The mesoβ-scale rain area may fail to be forecasted by the model.However the horizontal scale larger than mesoβ-scale rain events would be over-forecasted to have more rain area and total rainfall,but weaker intensity.The intensity error is similar to the first and the second types,in which the rain areas are over-forecasted and the average rain intensity and maximum rainfall are under-forecasted.However,the intensity is under-forecasted or the event is missed for the third type.For the location error,it is westward for the first type,northwestward for the second type,and southwestward for the third type.关键词
CRA/空间检验技术/降水落区和强度误差/西南地区东部/EC模式Key words
contiguous rain area (CRA)/spatial forecast verification method/location and intensity errors of precipitation/the east of Southwest China/ECMWF model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
符娇兰,代刊..基于CRA空间检验技术的西南地区东部强降水EC模式预报误差分析[J].气象,2016,42(12):1456-1464,9.基金项目
中国气象局预报员专项（CMAYBY2016-086）、公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201306002、GYHY20130613和 GYHY201406001）和预报预测核心业务发展专项（CMAHX20160101）共同资助 （）
